IdolHeadEd.com - Why Adam Will Never Ever Be In The Bottom Three

LindaK writes:
Adam’s talent alone will keep him in the number 1 spot for the next 6 weeks. In addition, for the statisticians among you, there is also the matter of history on his side. In analyzing the top 7 contestants for the past 7 seasons, and their standings up to this point, it becomes pretty clear that if tradition continues, Adam will never see the bottom three. Ever!

The contestants that have made it to the finale without ever having dwelled in the basement are Kelly in season 1, Clay in season 2, Carrie in season 4, Taylor in season 5, Jordin in season 6, and the Davids last year. So out of 49 contestants (7 seasons, top 7 each season), that means 7/49 escaped that dreaded bottom 2 or 3 fate. That is a 1 in 7 shot, or 14%. Not very impressive. Given those limited odds, what are the chances that the current Idols who have never seen the bottom, never will?

These lucky people as of now are Adam, Kris, and Danny. That’s it. As for the others, Allison and Anoop have both been in the bottom twice, and Matt and Lil once. The people who were eliminated in week 7 in seasons past had all been in the bottom before, ranging from 1 to 3 times. That seems to indicate that statistically, Adam, Danny and Kris should be safe this week. I don’t think anyone remotely expects Adam or Danny to leave this week; but these odds are good news for Kris.

The week 6 eliminations did have some surprises. In seasons 4 and 5, Constantine Maroulis and Kellie Pickler were eliminated without having ever been in the bottom before. Other than those two, everyone else had experienced that bottom three stool prior to his or her elimination. So if we go by history, Kris, Danny or Adam could be in jeopardy next week. Again, Adam and Danny shouldn’t be worrying. Lil and Anoop are much weaker contestants, so Kris might not have to worry, either. Although anything can happen, I think it’s safe to say that Kris, Danny, and Adam are safe not only this week, but next week as well.

Others have been eliminated higher up without having ever resided in the bottom. Tamyra finished 4^th and Melinda finished 3^rd without having been in the bottom before. Conversely, Nikki and Syesha finished 3^rd having practically owned that bottom three stool, sitting on it 5 times each. Kim Locke also made 4 trips to the lower ranks before finishing 3^rd, and Anthony Fedorov finished 4^th after making the trip to the bottom 4 times. Diana even finished 2^nd after having been in the bottom a record three times.

What do we learn from past statistics? That there is really no guarantee of anything. If someone can come in third place after being in the bottom 5 times, anything can happen, and we can’t count anyone out yet.

This is the week 7 elimination, where another statistic comes into play that is really annoying. They usually split the idols into two groups, and force one person to choose which group he or she thinks is the top 3. I remember Bo and Taylor refused to choose; I think they sat down in the middle. I have a strange feeling that if they use this overdone ploy again, it will be Adam who has to choose the group. I do hope that Idol comes up with a new way to handle the top 7 results, but if not, the Idols know by now how to deal with it and not fall into the obvious trap.

All prior 7 non-basement dwellers have made it to the finale. If all goes as it should in Idol Land Season 8, Anoop and Lil will be the next two to go home. That leaves Adam, Allison, Danny, Kris and Matt. Allison has been in the bottom the most of this crew so far, but this is subject to change as early as Tuesday, when someone has to join Lil and Anoop in the bottom. I predict this will be Kris or Matt, depending how they do with their movie song choice this week.

Of course, intangibles inevitably come into play, making the above statistics even more irrelevant. These include, can Allison continue her slow but steady upward climb? Can Kris maintain his, and recover from that awful performance a few weeks ago? Will Danny ever get that moment he desperately needs? Will Matt finally make the impact he needs? The next 6 weeks will reveal the answers to these and much more.

The only contestant that has no questions attached to him is Adam, which is why he will never see the bottom three and will end up in the finale, where he so deserves to be. He is so far ahead of the others in terms of talent and all the other intangibles that even the odds makers have him in his own league. Simon predicted Carrie would win in season 4, and he predicted Adam would win this year. Simon is not wrong about these things. Not only will Adam win, but this is embarrassingly becoming a one man contest, with the others fighting it out for second place. Kelly and Carrie were never in danger, and neither is Adam. And I know that like Kelly and Carrie, Adam’s name will be added to that elite list of American Idol winners who always saw the sunshine and never made that trip to the windowless dungeon.

Comments are always welcome under the article or at andmeljar@aol.com